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Final Poll Shows Francesca Hong with 22-Point Lead in Wisconsin’s Democratic Governor Primary

After Mandela Barnes’ withdrawal from the race and a large polling miss in Michigan, heads are turning in Wisconsin.

Final Poll Shows Francesca Hong with 22-Point Lead in Wisconsin’s Democratic Governor Primary

4 days out, Hong holds a wide lead in State Navigate’s final poll of the Democratic primary

What a week, huh?

Since our explosive first survey, made possible thanks to UpNorthNews and Main Street Action, it’s felt like the Democratic primary for Wisconsin Governor has been turned up on its head multiple times. A day after our survey was released, the gold standard of Wisconsin polling, Marquette Law School, released its final poll of the primary that showed very similar results to ours. Two days after the survey’s release, Mandela Barnes withdrew from the race.

Then came the kicker: the 12-point polling miss in the Democratic primary for US Senate in neighboring Michigan, which has turned many heads in Wisconsin and across the country, raising the question of whether there will be a polling miss in the Wisconsin Democratic primary for Governor. Indeed, our team has also been concerned and has spoken with several brilliant friends in our field in the days since the Michigan primary about what went wrong next door and what we could possibly do to try to prevent a miss ourselves.

We don’t care who wins; we only care about being right. We’ve done our due diligence in giving the public the best possible survey of the upcoming primary as humanly possible, and have detailed our findings, thought processes, and more in our final poll for what seemed like a sleepy race last week.

The ball is in your court, Wisconsin voters.

Data

Map of Unweighted Respondents

Toplines / Briefing

Crosstabs

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