A Tale of Two Midterms: Trump again, but no Manchin
In 2018, Donald Trump was in office with an approval rating in the low 40’s. Now, his approval rating for his second term sits in the mid-30s. But the makeup of West Virginia’s electorate, and legislature, is vastly different compared to 2018. While the overall electoral environment is expected to be similar to 2018 or slightly more friendly to Democrats, West Virginia Democrats will still struggle to make up ground despite our new poll showing them dominating with registered Independents.
In the 2018 midterm election, West Virginia Democrats gained 2 seats in the State Senate and 1 seat in the House of Delegates: they were just 4 seats away from a majority in the Senate, and held 41% of seats in the House of Delegates. Thanks to strong candidates, incumbents, and Joe Manchin’s coattails, West Virginia proved to be a state with resilient downballot strength for Democrats despite its reliably Republican lean in federal elections, with the exception of Manchin’s narrow re-election that year.
Then, 2020 happened: polarization started to settle into the electorate and, with no Joe Manchin leading the ticket, Republicans gained 18 seats in the House and 3 in the Senate. 2022 made matters worse for the West Virginia Democrats: due to Republicans controlling the redistricting pen, the elimination of multi-member districts, incumbent retirements, and anger toward President Biden, Democrats were reduced to just 4 seats in the Senate and 12 in the House. Nearly reaching their ceiling, Republicans gained 2 seats in the House and 1 in the Senate during the 2024 elections.
Now, Democrats are on offensive, but our forecast predicts that Democrats will be nowhere near their 2018 or even 2020 tresholds. Regardless, the Independent voters in West Virginia this November seem to be breaking heavily for Democrats, similar to what we’ve seen on the national level. With discontent over the state economy and government, West Virginia’s downballot tendencies could propel them to overperform our forecast and flip several seats if the results in our poll holds true in November.
Full results below.