1 week until Election Day, Bottoms is slightly favored to come out on top
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) leads Rick Jackson (R) 50% to 47% for governor in State Navigate’s October poll of 679 likely Georgia voters, a 3-point edge within the poll’s ±3.8-point margin of error. That is closer than our July poll, which had Bottoms up by 7 points. Jackson has outspent the field by a wide margin this fall, and while the topline has moved toward him, the “gains” have largely been driven by our final poll being more reflective of the electorate than July’s: the race looks much as it did when we did a test and weighted our July sample to a near-even 2024 electorate.
Down the ballot, the picture is consistent. Josh McLaurin (D) leads Greg Dolezal (R) 49% to 45% for lieutenant governor, Penny Brown Reynolds (D) leads Tim Fleming (R) 49% to 45% for secretary of state, and Tanya Miller (D) leads Brian Strickland (R) 49% to 46% for attorney general. On the generic ballot for the State House, Democrats lead 51% to 44%. None of these leads are safe, but every Democrat on the ticket is running at or slightly ahead of Bottoms.
Nearly half of Georgia’s likely electorate has already voted, and those early voters back Bottoms 55% to 41%. Voters who have yet to cast a ballot lean Jackson, 52% to 44%. That makes Election Day turnout the whole ballgame for Republicans: Jackson needs his voters to show up in force on November 3 to close a gap Democrats have already banked.
Bottoms wins Black voters 79% to 15% and women 57% to 38%, and leads among college graduates 58% to 38%. Jackson carries white voters 67% to 31%, men 57% to 41%, and voters without a four-year degree 52% to 44%. Geography follows the same lines: Bottoms runs up the score in Inner Atlanta (77% to 18%) and the suburban Atlanta counties (58% to 37%), while Jackson leads in the exurbs (56% to 41%) and the rest of the state (63% to 35%).
With a week to go, Georgia is a single-digit race that Democrats lead on paper and on the early-vote scoreboard. The question is whether Jackson’s spending can turn out enough Election Day voters to erase it.
Full data available below.