1 week until Election Day, Phil Scott clings to a narrow lead
Three weeks ago, our first poll of the Vermont Governor’s race showed incumbent Governor Phil Scott (R) leading Democrat/Progressive Amanda Janoo by 3 points (46% to 43%). It was a dead heat in a race most observers had written off as a sure thing for Scott, until the University of New Hampshire showed Janoo ahead. Our final poll, conducted October 23-25 among 1,752 likely voters, shows almost no change: Scott leads 49% to 46%, a 3-point margin.
The race is even more of a two-person contest than our last survey. In early October, 4% of likely voters backed one of the three minor-party candidates: Brian Judd, June Goodband, or Dean Roy. That has fallen to 2%, and the share who are undecided (or who said they already voted but do not remember who they cast a ballot for) has fallen from 8% to 3%. Scott and Janoo now hold 95% of the vote together, up from 89%. Those voters split almost evenly, so neither candidate gained ground. Within groups, though, the race has polarized. Democrats and Harris voters moved toward Janoo, and Republicans and Trump voters moved toward Scott.
Scott’s personal standing remains his strongest asset. Voters approve of the job he is doing 58% to 40%. Scott wins a quarter of Democrats, and that crossover is the reason a Republican is competitive at all in Vermont. The few voters who remain undecided and haven’t yet voted lean Republican, and most backed Scott in 2024. There are too few of them to decide the race on their own, but they give Scott a slight cushion if they come home.
The Lieutenant Governor race has become somewhat closer but remains lopsided. Former Lieutenant Governor Molly Gray (D) led Republican John Rodgers by 27 points just before their October 6 debate (59% to 32%). Rodgers’s exchange with Gray over migrant worker housing on her family’s farm went viral in conservative media, and he has since closed the gap to 22 points (58% to 37%). His gains came almost entirely from Republicans and independents: just 8% of Democrats back him. In a state this Democratic, Rodgers can’t win on Republican votes alone.
This survey was weighted on our standard demographic and party targets, without the 2024 recalled-vote weighting we applied to our early October release. Our sample recalls voting for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump by 36 points, compared with her actual 32-point win, similar to what our recalled presidential result was in our last survey.