4 weeks until Election Day, State Navigate’s polling shows the most competitive Vermont Governor race since 2016
The most shocking poll of the cycle is not in Texas, Iowa, Kansas, or any other red state. It’s in Vermont.
It’s not our poll, either. It was from the University of New Hampshire (UNH) two weeks ago and showed incumbent Governor Phil Scott (R) down 6 points to Democrat Amanda Janoo, with Janoo at 49% and Scott at 43%. Scott, who won re-election by 52 points in 2024, has largely been viewed as an incumbent Governor with a certain re-election bid up until this poll. However, this poll raised reasonable doubt: in 2022, UNH’s final survey around the same timeframe missed Scott’s margin of victory by 35 points. In 2024, a poll conducted and released just days before the election again undershot his margin of victory, albeit by a “smaller” 13-point margin. Shortly after UNH’s poll, Braun Research released a poll with Vermont Public showing Scott leading by 10 but still stuck in the mid-40s among likely voters.
We had been planning to conduct a poll of a Governor race that has seen scarce polling at the beginning of October (our team had been leaning toward Nevada), but when UNH came out we decided to switch gears to Vermont. In 2024, our worst-performing forecast was in the Vermont state legislature, where a red wave powered by Scott’s popularity and voters’ anger toward the Vermont legislature resulted in Republicans having a net gain of 23 seats (13% of all seats), the largest compositional change on the state legislative level nationwide: 9 districts our forecast rated as “Solid D” ended up flipping to Republicans.
We launched our first live, weighted statewide poll of the 2026 election, which showed the race as a dead heat, with Scott only up 1.4% (45.0% – 43.6%). Our live poll, however, didn’t include weighting for 2024 recalled vote, whereas our final poll does, boosting Scott’s lead to 3% (46% – 43%). Voters still approve of Scott 57 – 37%, and among the voters in our sample who say they voted for Scott in 2024 but are planning or leaning toward voting for Janoo, Scott has a net approval of -14, with 54% disapproving and 40% approving. The race for Lieutenant Governor looks like a safe Democratic pickup with former Lieutenant Governor Molly Gray (D) running against incumbent Republican John Rodgers: Gray holds a 27-point lead, 59% – 32%.
We also asked voters why they approve or disapprove of Governor Scott’s performance, whether they approve or disapprove of the Vermont legislature, and more. This poll produced some of the most interesting findings of our polls this year, so be sure to read our team notes.
You can check the full results for each poll below.