Our final pre-election poll of Minnesota finds Democrats ahead in both statewide races we tested, with Amy Klobuchar running even with the state’s partisan lean.
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) leads Lisa Demuth (R) 52% to 42% for governor in State Navigate’s October poll of 806 likely Minnesota voters, with Green Party nominee Steven Young at 3%. A 10-point lead is comfortable, but for Klobuchar it is unusually ordinary. She won her Senate races by 35 points in 2012, 24 in 2018 and 16 in 2024, each time running far ahead of the Democrat at the top of the ticket. This time she isn’t: our poll’s presidential recall margin among likely voters is Harris +10, the same as her lead over Demuth.
That is a likely sign that Minnesota’s fraud scandal is weighing on her, and that voters have little appetite for promoting a senator to governor. Colorado sent the same signal this year, when Attorney General Phil Weiser beat Senator Michael Bennet by about 9 points in the Democratic primary for governor.
Down the ballot, Keith Ellison (DFL) leads Ronald Schutz (R) 52% to 44% for attorney general, about 2 points behind Klobuchar. The gap comes from ticket splitters: 4% of Klobuchar voters back Schutz, while only 1% of Demuth voters back Ellison. Public polling shows Ellison averaging about a point behind Peggy Flanagan’s margin in the US Senate race in those that asked about both races. Democrats are quite likely to extend their streak in Minnesota statewide races: no Republican has been elected statewide since 2006.
With a week to go, Klobuchar is the clear favorite. The open question is whether a lead built on the state’s partisan baseline, rather than her own brand, holds up once Election Day voters turn out.
Full results below.