New polls in Pennsylvania Senate’s tipping point races in tilt toward Republicans
Maybe Josh Shapiro won’t get his trifecta, even if he wins by 20 points or more.
State Navigate conducted two polls in two races that are seen as tipping points for the Pennsylvania State Senate, one that’s been tilting toward Republicans in our forecast (SD-36) and another that’s been tilting toward Democrats (SD-40). Democrats won SD-36 in Lancaster County in a surprise win via special election last year and are defending their new incumbent, James Malone, in the district. In northeastern Pennsylvania’s SD-40, Republican incumbent Rosemary Brown has been viewed as the most likely Republican incumbent in a competitive district to win, though she’s been a very slight underdog in our forecast since it launched.
Much to Democrats’ dismay, Republicans are leading in both of these seats by 3 points, despite recent nationwide polling suggesting an environment bluer than 2018. Should these leads hold in November, that’d leave Democrats’ path to creating a trifecta in Pennsylvania dependent on tying the chamber via winning SD-16 with the Lieutenant Governor breaking ties.
We also polled PA HD-41 in the Lancaster suburbs, which has Democrats narrowly leading in a seat with a Republican incumbent, lining up with our forecasts’ expectations.