Center-right Republicans have firm control of the Utah legislature this year, but Democrats are hoping that the shifting tides in Salt Lake City may allow them to increase their influence in the legislature. The State Senate doesn’t feature any highly competitive races this year, so our focus will be on the State House.
Based on campaign finance reports, Democrats seem to be putting most of their efforts in winning two seats in the Utah State House, both of which are held by Republicans not seeking re-election. HD-42 in Seven Springs voted for Joe Biden by just 0.02% in 2020, yet Democrats didn’t bother to field a candidate for the seat in 2022. But the ten-year Republican incumbent isn’t seeking re-election this year, and Democrats are going all in for their candidate this year, Travis Smith (D), who has a slight cash advantage over Republican opponent Clint Okerlund. This seat likely votes for Kamala Harris again this year, and Democrats are probably slight favorites to flip the seat. This is a Tilt Democratic flip.
Their best pickup though is in West Valley City’s Biden +6 HD-30 – Republicans won this as an open race in 2022 in part because of a third-party candidate (United Utah) likely taking away Democratic-leaning votes, as well as a lack of Democratic investment in the seat. This year, Democrat Jake Fitisemanu Jr. has a large financial advantage over Fred C. Cox (R), and there won’t be a third party on the ballot this time. Democrats probably pick up this seat as well, but it’s probably another close race – it was decided by 3 points in 2022 and will probably be decided by a similar margin, but this time in the Democrats’ favor. This is a Tilt Democratic flip.
Overall, we expect Democrats to flip two seats in the State House, far less than they need to break the Republican supermajority in the state. Unless there’s an emerging, influential far-right movement in Utah government and the state party like there have been in other Republican-dominated western states in recent years, Republicans should hold their supermajorities here for the rest of the decade.