Our final forecast shows Democrats creating trifectas and supermajorities while breaking four Republican ones, and enjoying their largest net gain in state legislative seats this century.
The overall picture
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Democrats have not held a majority of state legislative seats since Republicans thrashed them in 2010. Our final forecast expects that to change when state legislators are sworn in next year. It also projects that a narrow majority of Americans (51.8%) will be represented by a Democratic state senator, and a wider majority (55.5%) by a Democratic state representative, assemblymember, or delegate. About ⅔ of Americans (67%) are projected to have a Democratic Governor.
Democrats and their allies (independents and Republicans who caucus with them) are projected to gain a net 425 state legislative seats nationwide. That is about 100 more than they gained in 2006, making this the biggest Democratic wave election of the century.
Trifecta Changes
Five states are projected to have a Democratic trifecta after this election: Minnesota (95% chance), Michigan (81%), Arizona (74%), Wisconsin (61%), and Pennsylvania (52%). Alaska also has an 81% chance of a de facto Democratic trifecta: the Democratic-aligned bipartisan coalitions that run the State House and State Senate are expected to hold, and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) is the heavy favorite for governor. Pennsylvania’s odds count a tied State Senate as a Democratic trifecta, though it would be weak, since the lieutenant governor can break ties on only some votes. Democrats also have outside chances of creating trifectas in three additional states: 26% in Nevada, 23% in Vermont, and 15% in North Carolina. Republicans are favored to create one new trifecta, in Kansas (66%), by winning the governor’s race.
Four Republican trifectas are expected to break this year: Iowa (92%), New Hampshire (87%), Ohio (78%), and Georgia (57%). Texas (38%), Florida (25%), and Nebraska (10%) could also lose theirs.
Supermajority Changes
Nine Republican supermajorities are expected to be broken this year: New Hampshire Senate (97%), Iowa Senate (96%), Missouri House (94%), Nebraska Legislature (93%), Kansas House (91%), Florida House (87%), Missouri Senate (66%), Florida Senate (59%), and Indiana House (57%). Republicans could also lose their supermajorities in the Ohio Senate (43%) and South Carolina House (40%). Two Democratic supermajorities are at some risk of breaking: the New York Assembly (12%) and Alaska Senate (10%).
Eight Democratic supermajorities are expected to be created: Vermont House and Senate (97% each), Colorado House (95%) and Senate (78%), Washington House (90%), New York Senate (90%), New Mexico House (78%), and Nevada Assembly (62%). Democrats could also win supermajorities in the Maine Senate (40%) and House (37%), New Hampshire House (33%) and Senate (21%), and Minnesota Senate (12%). One Republican supermajority could also be created: Iowa Senate (17%).
Governors Races
Our forecasts expect four states with a Republican Governor to elect a Democrat this year: Iowa (92% chance), Alaska (83%), Ohio (78%), and Georgia (54%). As mentioned before, Kansas is expected to go from having a Democratic Governor to a Republican one, with a 66% chance of this occurring. The battlefield looms large, though. Other states with Republican Governors that may elect a Democrat instead include Texas (31%), Nevada (26%), Florida (24%), Vermont (23%), and Nebraska (10%). Republicans also have a long shot at flipping another state with a Democratic Governor: Oregon, with a 9% chance.
Chambers
Democrats are favored to flip eight state legislative chambers, most of which are in the Rust Belt: Minnesota House (98%), Wisconsin Senate (90%) and Assembly (67%), Arizona House (82%, with a 6% chance of a tie that results in a power-sharing agreement) and Senate (84% chance, with a 7% chance of a tie where the Lieutenant Governor breaks them; given the state of the Governors race, that would likely be a Democrat), Pennsylvania Senate (68%), North Carolina House (49%, with a 5% chance of a tie that results in a power-sharing agreement).
Other chambers on our radar that may flip from Republican to Democratic include the Georgia House (29% chance of a majority, 5% chance of a tie) and Senate (6% chance of a majority, 4% chance of a tie), Texas House (22% chance of a majority, 3% chance of a tie), North Carolina Senate (17% chance of a majority, 10% chance of a tie), and Iowa House (10% chance of a majority, 2% chance of a tie). Republicans may be able to flip the Alaska House (5% chance of a majority, 4% chance of a tie), but it’d likely come down to what caucus new members decide to join after the election.